Executive Summary

A Comprehensive Plan for Transition in Cuba

Overview

Following Cuba's liberation, Cuba Renace offers a thorough, evidence-based plan for transforming the country after decades of centralized authoritarian rule. The plan details a shift toward a free, federal, democratic, and prosperous republic founded on strong institutions, openness, and national renewal.

• The proposals are based on successful models, such as post-communist transitions in Poland, Estonia, and the Czech Republic.

• Dollarized economies like Panama and Ecuador.

• Federal governance in the United States and Commonwealth countries.

Together, these lessons offer a practical blueprint for quick stabilization, ongoing economic growth, and lasting prosperity.

Core Pillars

Democracy and Governance

• Cuba would become a federal republic made up of six historic provinces: Pinar del Río, La Habana, Matanzas, Las Villas, Camagüey, and Oriente.

• Each province has autonomy over local policy, taxation, and development.

• The national government would have a presidential system with fixed terms, separation of powers, and an independent judiciary. Safeguards like decommunization, justice, anti-corruption oversight, and civil liberties protections would prevent democratic backsliding.

• Freedom of the press, culture, and artistic expression would be fully restored, reconnecting national identity with Cuba’s historical traditions and democratic heritage.

Economic Transformation

Economic recovery would start immediately through dollarization to stabilize the currency and rebuild investor confidence.

• A competitive tax system, including flat personal taxes of 15–20% and corporate taxes of 12–15%, combined with privatization, open markets, and the revival of the Havana Stock Exchange, would encourage investment and entrepreneurship.

• Preferential economic integration with the United States, including a potential free-association framework, would boost foreign direct investment, trade, and tourism.

Projected GDP growth could reach approximately:

• $150 billion by 2031

• $250 billion by 2036

• $600 billion by 2051

• $1.5 trillion by 2076

This trajectory could increase per-capita income from about $9,000 to over $130,000 within fifty years.

Infrastructure and National Development

• Infrastructure development would prioritize highways, inter-provincial rail, ports, airports, nationwide fiber and 5G connectivity, resilient energy, and universal access to clean water and sanitation.

• Urban mobility would include metro or tram systems in Havana and bus rapid transit networks in major cities.

• Disaster preparedness would emphasize civilian resilience through community-based efforts, civil defense, and a limited National Guard.

Sectoral Renewal

• Healthcare and education systems would implement hybrid public-private models that ensure access while increasing choice and efficiency.

• Agricultural reform would turn unused land into productive private farms backed by mechanization and export-focused markets.

• A merit-based immigration system would attract skilled Cuban exiles and strategic international talent while keeping entry controlled during the reconstruction period.

Expected Outcomes

With full implementation, Cuba could reach upper-middle to high-income status within 25 to 50 years. The model predicts a 70–85% chance of long-term economic convergence with developed nations, reflecting historical trends seen in successful post-communist reforms.

• Short-term stabilization would eliminate shortages and restore economic activity.

• Medium-term reforms would boost exports, employment, and investment.

• Long-term development would create a diverse, innovative, and globally connected economy.

The Alternative

Without structural reform, ongoing centralization, corruption, and partial reforms would likely extend economic stagnation, emigration, and political instability.

Cuba Renace presents a different path — one based on freedom, opportunity, and national renewal.